By Riaan de Villiers
This is the first of three articles tracing the health of South Africa’s constitutional democracy, prior to the local government elections on 4 November. Two more will follow – about declining levels of voter turnout, as well as high and rising levels of political violence.
AS MOST people know, the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) plays a vital role in administering South Africa’s elections. What is less well known is that it also manages one of the most important opinion surveys in the country.
Called the Voter Participation Survey, and conducted by the Human Sciences Research Council, it tracks the views of adult South Africans about electoral democracy, as well as voter attitudes and perceptions prior to elections.
As a result, it serves as a barometer of the wellbeing or otherwise of South Africa’s fledgling democracy. No less than 18 surveys have been conducted since 1999, thereby allowing analysts to track changes in voter perceptions and atitudes over time.
The latest data was was collected from October 2025 to February 2026, timed to produce results six months before the forthcoming local government elections. The findings were made public at a seminar in Johannesburg in March.
While they received little public attention, they should alarm anyone concerned about the wellbeing of South Africa’s fledgling democracy.
The main findings
Titled ‘South African Democracy at a Crossroads’, the study highlights declining levels of trust in key institutions of governance. While many citizens continue to affirm voting as a civic duty, the research indicates a notable decline in support for democracy as the preferred system of governance, alongside rising levels of political disengagement and disillusionment.
A notable proportion of non-voters attribute their abstention to a lack of interest, and a broader sense of disillusionment with the lack of tangible democratic dividends. Specifically:
- Popular support for democracy is at a historic low: preference for democracy as a form of governance has fallen from around 65% in mid-2000s to 36%.
- A fatalistic view (type of political regime ‘does not matter’) has risen to 34%
- Openness to non-democratic alternatives is increasing: more than one in four respondents (26%) now see non-democratic options as acceptable – the highest level recorded to date.
There are significant variances across provinces. While support for democracy as the preferred system of government is not a majority view in any province (range: 28%-46%), the highest levels of support occur in the Western Cape (46%) and Free State (43%).
- Fatalistic views (type of political regime ‘does not matter’) vary from 23%-45%, with the highest levels occurring in Limpopo and Northern Cape.
- Support for non-democratic alternatives is particularly high in KwaZulu-Natal (33%) and Mpumalanga (30%).
The IEC’s performance
The study also assessed the Electoral Commission’s performance in the last election, providing insights into how the Commission’s activities are perceived by the public, highlighting areas of strength as well as opportunities for improvement in delivering efficient, transparent, and credible electoral processes.
In terms of voter experience at voting stations, 74% of adult citizens believe that safety and security at voting stations are adequately managed, while 53% agree that the Commission effectively handles voting irregularities.
Speaking at the seminar, Chief Electoral Officer (CEO), Sy Mamabolo, emphasised the importance of the study, noting that it enabled the Commission to better understand the views of citizens, and to plan for effective election administration and seamless execution of electoral operations across the country.
“This survey forms part of ongoing research that the Commission has undertaken since the early 2000s to take a deep and reflective view of the attitudes within our democratic society. The findings of this survey enable the Commission to design and implement targeted interventions that contribute to creating conditions conducive to free and fair elections.’
He called on all ‘trusted leaders in all sectors of society’ to join the IEC in promoting democratic values and implementing civic education campaigns that ‘demonstrate its tangible benefits’.
- To access the IEC’s media release about the seminar, as well as links to the HSRC study, click here.