By MAEDER OSLER
SO IT HAS come about that my eyes of Climate Change feel more clearly opened by a recent academic publication which reads like a straight-arrowed example of a surprisingly refreshingly selected and presented ‘farmers’ stoep talk’, which more of us so-called hunters and so-called gatherers, and other so-called commentariats, can appreciate anytime and anywhere in these apparent storms of weather and climate and seasonal – and possibly ‘forever’ – changes, facing us and our worlds.
I am referring to the succinct and clear publication titled Climate change impacts in South Africa: What climate change means for a country and its people, compiled by researchers at the University of Cape Town (UCT).
Whether climate change can be unpacked one morsel at a time is another story, though this report looks to me like a most digestible menu by which some of the major aspects around climate change can indeed be better packaged, understood, checked out, digested?
What is more, this suits us at Toverview, this ‘project for models of rural communications’, because experience is teaching us that many of our self-imposed assumptions, boundaries, margins and edges are arguable conveniences faced with realities, including our key words of ‘project’ or ‘rural’ or ‘models’ or ‘communications’. And, besides, for me, stoep talk is just fine. And farmers’ stoep talk,, which I so miss, is even better. And sometimes it is a relief to escape much of the opinionated suffocations from other quarters who (also) claim to have earned the right and IDs and protocols to pronounce on all xyz’s.
For one, our interest in rural things, and our circumstances, means that Climate Change discussions would be better served were it not rooted or packaged in a context of rural bliss, sunrises, sunsets, chocolate box popcorns. Any farming, and hunting, and gathering; any living; is not, this suggests, merely for sissies, as much as it is not so for druggies, alkies, classists, the rest of us fallible beings.
For two, other boundaries and margins and borders seem increasingly edgy: hardly to apply – rural is also urban, urban is also rural, regional is cosmopolitan, the cosmos is also local. Assumptions can be best looked at more closely, as opportunities rather than problems – through telescopes, microscopes, and, yes, always, stoep talks.
The UCT report, described as ‘a scientific synthesis led by the University of Cape Town’, is impressively direct, ‘intended to inform policymakers, media, the private sector, civil society, academics and anyone looking for country-level information on the impacts of climate change in South Africa’. That’s for sure, all of us?!
The authors assureus that the report ‘has been reviewed internally before publication’. They are Dr Peter Johnston, Dr Temitope S. Egbebiyi, Luckson Zvobgo, Dr Sabina Abba Omar, Anton Cartwright and Prof Bruce Hewitson. The scientific coordinator is Dr Peter Johnston.
More importantly, for all of us yokels on stoeps, the report is published under a creative commons license, which means it ‘may be reproduced for educational or non-profit services without special permission, provided users fully acknowledge the source’. A link to the full report appears above.
The report was first brought to my attention by a special and stoep talk friend, Dr Paul Clüver, managing director of Paul Clüver Family Wines in Elgin.
From these other rooms with views from an old waenhuis on a farm in the Karoo, I am delighted to put my summary of their ‘executive summary’ report as an opening agenda for all stoep talks and all farmer agendas, all of us, hunters and gatherers alike.
The cascading effects of climate change on people’s lives.
A stoep talk summary of an executive summary
During this stoep talk in the current winds around this waenhuis and werfgebou, I am overhearing:
- ‘South Africa is one of the most diverse economies in Africa and home to 61.5 million people.’
- ‘The climate is varied: the hot, arid Kalahari Desert in the north west gives way to subtropical greenery in the east and temperate conditions in the south-west. Two oceans – the South Atlantic and the Indian – meet along a coastline stretching more than 2,500 km. From the Kruger National Park to the iSimangaliso wetlands, South Africa is home to a rich diversity of plant and animal life. It hosts three of the world’s 36 biodiversity hotspots.’
- ‘Amid chronic social and economic challenges, South Africa’s vibrant agriculture and rich natural landscapes remain vital assets.’
- ‘Many South Africans lack access to basic provisions and services, with those affected concentrated disproportionately in low-income areas. More than half the population lives below the upper-bound poverty line, meaning household income cannot cover both food and basic living costs.’
- ‘At least a third of South Africans between the ages of 16 and 64 are unemployed – the highest rate in any G20 country. About 20% of the population is food insecure, with poor nutrition putting extra strain on overcrowded and under-resourced hospitals. Blackouts are a daily experience for millions, as are poor transport links and creaking infrastructure.’
- ‘About 20% of South Africa’s population is food insecure, with poor nutrition putting extra strain on overcrowded and under-resourced hospitals.’
- ‘Amid these challenges, agriculture and biodiversity are particularly important. South Africa’s produce includes livestock, sugar cane, maize, citrus, wine and grapes, while its natural landscapes are home to a world famous diversity of plant and animal life. In 2022, more than 5.7 million tourists visited South Africa, many attracted by its striking scenery and iconic species. This represents a recovery compared with 2020 and 2021 but is just 55% of the figure pre-COVID-19.’
- ‘Crop and livestock farming provide food and livelihoods for many South Africans and, alongside nature tourism, contribute to the economy.’
- ‘Agricultural land covers about 80% of South Africa’s total area. Commercial farms account for three-quarters of agricultural land, producing fruit, wine, vegetables, cereals, wool and meat for the domestic market and international export. Additionally, about 2–3 million smallholder farmers produce food for their own households or for limited sale.’
- ‘As well as ensuring availability of food for South Africans, the agricultural sector – including fishing, forestry and hunting as well as farming – accounted for 10% of export earnings and contributed 2.5% to the GDP in 2021/22. It is also a big employer, accounting for 21% of total employment.’
- ‘Farm stays, wine-tasting and other agri-tourism activities generate additional income for farmers and seasonal workers, while biodiversity tourism is a growing contributor to the economy. In 2017 alone, the Kruger National Park contributed R2.6 billion to the gross domestic product and supported more than 10,000 jobs.’
- ‘Yet these vital assets are at risk. Climate change poses a threat to South Africans by reducing incomes, undermining food and water security and raising the cost of living.’
- ‘Climate impacts are already clear in South Africa and will worsen as the global temperature rises, though the extent of the impacts depends greatly on future emissions. Even in scenarios where global warming is limited to 2°C, heatwaves are projected to become hotter and more frequent, raising the risk of deadly heat stress.’
- ‘Similarly, severe droughts will happen more frequently. Between 2015 and 2017, a lack of rainfall led to a severe drought and a drinking water crisis in the Cape Town area – an event that human caused climate change made three to six times more likely. Despite an overall drying trend across the country, in eastern South Africa heavy rainfall is projected to increase, making the region more prone to flooding. Tropical cyclones, although not necessarily more frequent, may become more intense.’
- ‘Between 2015 and 2017, a lack of rainfall led to a severe drought and a drinking water crisis in the Cape Town area – an event that human caused climate change made three to six times more likely.’
- ‘As well as adding to the existing pressures on public services and infrastructure, climate change threatens the lives and livelihoods of South Africans through its effect on agriculture, nature and nature tourism (see Signature figure). Extreme heat is making land less suitable for crops and posing a major threat to livestock. With crop-growing concentrated in just 12% of the country’s land area, lower production in these vital areas threatens food security and export earnings. For families and farming households, any extreme event that reduces production – such as a flood or a drought – is likely to reduce job security and income.’
- ‘Extreme weather threatens the plants and animals that attract tourism as well and directly damages infrastructure at nature reserves, adventure destinations and parks. Temperature rise by 2050 is projected to decrease visitors to South Africa’s national parks by 4%, with the Kruger National Park most affected.’
- ‘Limiting greenhouse gas emissions and building resilience can improve the everyday live and experiences of South Africans.’
The major agricultural regions in South Africa. Graphic: InfoDesignLab.
- ‘Small-scale farmers have long been aware of the threat that climate change poses to their lives and livelihoods, just as commercial farmers are tuned in to the impacts of changing weather patterns on their farms’ productivity. As such, adaptation strategies include enhancing soil carbon, planting new crop varieties and using Indigenous practices to harvest rainwater. Although adaptation has, so far, been sufficient to stave off the worst impacts, limits to adaptation may be soon reached under projected climate change scenarios.’
- ‘Structural barriers, such as access to finance, insurance and infrastructure, mean that small-scale farmers are more vulnerable to climate impacts than commercial outfits. Alongside slow-moving state-led land and agrarian reform programmes, initiatives to enhance ecological infrastructure and adapt to climate change in nature-smart ways offer a means to address climate change, inequality, poverty and infrastructure failures simultaneously.’
- ‘Initiatives to enhance ecological infrastructure and adapt to climate change in nature-smart ways offer a means to address climate change, inequality, poverty and infrastructure failures simultaneously.’
- ‘The severity of future climate change ultimately depends on the level to which global emissions are reduced. Much of South Africa’s economic future hinges on the speed with which investments in its solar and wind resources can replace coal and provide affordable and reliable electricity.’
- ‘Meanwhile, South Africa has led calls in international climate negotiations for a “just transition” to elevate concerns about social justice and commit high-income countries to financing decarbonization and loss and damage in middle- and low-income countries.
- ‘In this context, South Africa’s national targets are to limit its annual greenhouse gas emissions to 398–510 MtCO2e by 2025 and to 350–420 MtCO2e by 2030.’
- Contingent on climate finance, South Africa has adopted a net zero by 2050 target in its low-emission development strategy.’
Toverview, for its own personal and private enjoyments, as Tover Views, is preparing its own summaries of the report’s four chapters: CHAPTER 1 Farming and nature in context, CHAPTER 2 Lives and livelihoods, CHAPTER 3 Climate impacts, CHAPTER 4 Act and adapt. They will appear in future on our website at the waenhuis.